黄文涌
Huang Wenyong Dapartment of Health Statistics

• 1: 贵阳医学院卫生统计学教研室

摘要(Abstract)：

本文应用GM(1,1)模型对贵州省卫生资源进行预测,取得了较好的预测结果。模型对原始数据的拟合也较好,平均相对误差在0.48％～2.7％之间。我们还预测了1990～2000年间贵州省卫生资源的发展趋势,有一定可行性。因此,该模型是一个有效的预测工具。
The sanitarian resources in Guizhou Province were predicted using Grey Dynamic Model (1,1). The data showed that the predicted result was good. The model had a good fitting effect for the primary data. The range of average relative error of fitting was from 0.48%to 2.7%. The developing trend of the sanitarian resources from 1990 to 2000 was predicted. We consider that the result of the prediction is practicable, and the model is a valuable tool for prediction.

关键词(KeyWords)： 卫生资源;预测;灰色模型
health resources; forecasting; grey model

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 黄文涌
Huang Wenyong Dapartment of Health Statistics

DOI: 10.19367/j.cnki.1000-2707.1991.04.024

参考文献(References)：

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• 2． 邓聚龙.灰色控制系统.武昌:华中工学院出版社,1985．
• 3． 贵州省统计局编.贵州奋进的四十年(1949-1988) .北京:中国统计出版社,1989．
• 4． 冯文权.时间序列预测技术.经济预测与经济决策技术.武昌:武汉大学出版社,1983:128．

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