贵州医科大学学报

1991, (04) 366-369

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灰色模型在贵州省卫生资源预测上的应用
Application of the Grey Model in forecasting of the Health Resources of Guizhou Province

黄文涌;
Huang Wenyong Dapartment of Health Statistics

摘要(Abstract):

本文应用GM(1,1)模型对贵州省卫生资源进行预测,取得了较好的预测结果。模型对原始数据的拟合也较好,平均相对误差在0.48%~2.7%之间。我们还预测了1990~2000年间贵州省卫生资源的发展趋势,有一定可行性。因此,该模型是一个有效的预测工具。
The sanitarian resources in Guizhou Province were predicted using Grey Dynamic Model (1,1). The data showed that the predicted result was good. The model had a good fitting effect for the primary data. The range of average relative error of fitting was from 0.48%to 2.7%. The developing trend of the sanitarian resources from 1990 to 2000 was predicted. We consider that the result of the prediction is practicable, and the model is a valuable tool for prediction.

关键词(KeyWords): 卫生资源;预测;灰色模型
health resources; forecasting; grey model

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 黄文涌;
Huang Wenyong Dapartment of Health Statistics

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DOI: 10.19367/j.cnki.1000-2707.1991.04.024

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