贵州医科大学学报

2018, v.43;No.214(07) 819-823

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两种方法预测40岁以上人群未来10年心血管病发病风险
The Prevalence of 10-year Cardiovascular Risk Predicted by Two Different Risk Assessment Models

孙照阳;张巧;徐淑静;彭年春;胡颖;张淼;时立新;
SUN Zhaoyang;ZHANG Qiao;XU Shujing;PENG Nianchun;HU Ying;ZHANG Miao;SHI Lixin;Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism,the Affiliated Hospital of Guiyang Medical College;

摘要(Abstract):

目的:探讨两种方法预测贵阳地区40岁以上人群未来10年患心血管病发病风险的可行性。方法:收集贵阳地区4 122名居民2011年的基线资料,采用动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病风险预测模型(China-PAR模型)和2013美国心脏病学院/美国心脏协会推荐的汇总队列公式模型(PCE)预测该人群未来10年患心血管疾病发病风险及风险等级,比较两种方法预测结果的一致性及推荐使用他汀类药物人群所占比例。结果:ChinaPAR模型显示,该人群未来10年心血管病发病风险为1.83%、低危的比例为87.7%、高危的比例为12.3%、PCE模型显示,该人群未来10年心血管病发病风险为7.20%、低危的比例为65.7%、高危的比例34.3%;两种方法预测结果比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),一致性检验Kappa值为0.022;China-PAR模型及PCE模型预测使用他汀类药物的比例分别为43.3%及53.6%。结论:China-PAR模型预测未来10年心血管病发病风险高危的比例低于用美国PCE模型,两种方法预测结果一致性较差,China-PAR模型较PCE模型建议更少的人群使用他汀类药物。
Objective: To investigate the difference of cardiovascular assessment methods in evaluation of 10-year cardiovascular risks in people over 40 years old. Methods: A total of 10 140 adults aged 40 and over were selected from Guiyang urban districts based cross-sectional study. Data were obtained from questionnaire surveys,physical and biochemical examinations were evaluated by Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China( China-PAR),Pooled cohort equations( PCE) reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association( ACC/AHA). Results: China-PAR model showed that the proportion of low risk was 87. 7%,and the proportion of high risk was 12. 3%. PCE model showed that the proportion of low risk was 65. 7,and the proportion of high risk was 34. 3. The difference between the two methods was statistically significant( P < 0. 05),Kappa = 0. 022. According to the guideline for the prevention and treatment of lipids,the two methods showed that the proportion of both China-PAR and PCE models to use statins were 43. 3% and 53. 6% respectively. Conclusion:The incidence proportion of 10-year cardiovascular risk predicted by China-PAR model is lower than the proportion predicted by PCE model. The results of the two methods are not consistent with each other. China-PAR model suggests fewer individuals use statins than the PCE model does.

关键词(KeyWords): 心血管疾病;预测;China-PAR模型;PCE模型;他汀类药物
cardiovascular diseases;predict;China-PAR model;PCE model;statins

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院项目(201502007);; 贵州省省长资金临床应用课题专项研究项目[黔省专合字(2012)100号];; 贵州省临床重点专科培育项目

作者(Author): 孙照阳;张巧;徐淑静;彭年春;胡颖;张淼;时立新;
SUN Zhaoyang;ZHANG Qiao;XU Shujing;PENG Nianchun;HU Ying;ZHANG Miao;SHI Lixin;Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism,the Affiliated Hospital of Guiyang Medical College;

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DOI: 10.19367/j.cnki.1000-2707.2018.07.017

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